Every few weeks someone tells us retained search is surging. It sounds right. Last year's numbers are strong, private equity is asking more of its leaders, and everyone in the business has a story. Before you act on it, it helps to know what the evidence supports and what it does not.
The best recent number comes from Hunt Scanlon. Fee revenue at the 50 largest executive search firms in the US and the Americas rose 11% in 2025 to $6.69 billion. Three quarters of the firms polled grew, and 24, nearly half, grew by double digits. In the same survey, 94% of firms said they expect revenue growth in 2026.
Growth in fee revenue at the 50 largest US and Americas executive search firms in 2025, to $6.69 billion. 75% of firms grew and 24 grew by double digits.
Hunt Scanlon Media, April 28, 2026What the number does not prove
It does not tell you that retained search is gaining share. That figure covers the whole industry. We looked for a public, credible split between retained and contingent revenue, and could not find one. Some blog posts quote precise percentages without naming where they came from. We would not rely on them, and we have not used them here.
So the honest version is narrower, and in some ways more useful. The largest firms are growing, and the reasons Hunt Scanlon gives are specific: a rising cost of leadership mis-selection, greater role complexity, more governance scrutiny, and demand for forward-looking evaluation of leaders. Demand rose in private equity and venture, healthcare services, financial services, technology and AI.
Read that list again. None of it is about getting more résumés faster. Buyers are paying for judgment.
What you pay for up front
A retained search is paid in stages, and the firm works for one client on an exclusive basis. The details of fees and incentives are in our comparison of the two models. What matters here is what that structure lets the firm do.
- Write the brief. Most failed hires are failed briefs. A firm that is paid whether or not you hire its candidate can afford to spend three weeks on what the job is, who decides, and what success looks like in 18 months.
- Say no. An exclusive firm can tell you the seat is mis-scoped, the comp is wrong or the finalist will not survive the sponsor. A firm racing four others to get a résumé in front of you first is rewarded for speed.
- Control who knows. A confidential search has one rule: the fewer firms and people that know, the better. Exclusivity is how you limit that.
Contingent search sells you candidates. Retained search sells you a decision you can defend.
Which model fits which seat
This is our view, not a ruling. It is how we would sort a request on the first call.
| The seat | Usually fits | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-level role, visible supply | Contingent | Plenty of candidates, low cost of a miss, no need for secrecy. |
| Incumbent still in the seat | Confidential, retained | One person must not find out, so one firm must hold the process. |
| Sponsor-backed CEO, CFO or CRO | Retained | A wrong hire in year four can cost the exit window. |
| A role you cannot yet define | Fractional first | Write the job by doing it for 90 days, then search against a real spec. |
What to watch heading into 2027
We found no credible 2027 forecast, and we would be wary of anyone who offers one. What we can do is name the conditions that move in the same direction, and what to check as the year turns.
- Holding periods. As summarized by Adastrum Consulting from Bain data, the average buyout hold at exit rose from 5.0 years in 2010 to 7.0 in 2024, and 39% of active buyout-backed companies had been held more than five years by 2025, up from 29% in 2019. A longer hold means a second leadership team, which means more searches inside the same company.
- Exits. AlixPartners' March 2026 survey of 427 executives found nearly half say finding buyers is difficult, which extends holds. If that eases, the pressure on leadership decisions changes shape, not size.
- The April survey. Hunt Scanlon published this survey in April, so the next edition is the one to watch. If revenue growth slows while the firms with retained, advisory-led models keep growing, that tells you more than any blog post can.
Three questions to ask any firm
- What do you do in the first three weeks, before a candidate is named?
- Have you told a client in the last year that the seat was wrong, and what happened?
- Who at your firm and mine will know the name of the incumbent?
If the answers are crisp, you are probably talking to a firm that is paid for judgment. If they are all about speed and volume, you are buying a different product, and that may be the right one for a different seat.